{"id":336128,"date":"2026-10-26T08:07:51","date_gmt":"2026-10-26T04:07:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/real-estate-mauritius.mu\/?p=336128"},"modified":"2026-10-26T08:09:43","modified_gmt":"2026-10-26T04:09:43","slug":"mauritius-economic-growth-property","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/real-estate-mauritius.mu\/en\/mauritius-economic-growth-property\/","title":{"rendered":"Mauritius Economic Growth: 3.5% in 2025, 3.0% Forecast for 2026, and Property"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mauritius’s economy grew by 3.5% in 2025, and Statistics Mauritius forecasts 3.0% for 2026. The Bank of Mauritius is a little more cautious, at 2.8%. For property the picture is mixed: investment in residential buildings is still rising, but barely (a forecast +0.7% in real terms in 2026, against +8.4% in 2025), and construction is expected to edge up only slightly after shrinking in 2025.<\/p>\n

The figures come from the national accounts released on 30 September 2026. They use a new base year, which changes the growth rate for several past years. Many websites still quote the old numbers.<\/p>\n

Mauritius GDP growth: 3.5% in 2025 after the revision<\/h2>\n

Statistics Mauritius has rebased its accounts on 2023, which raised the level of GDP across the whole period and changed the growth rates. GDP at market prices reached Rs 810.3 billion in 2025, up 3.5% in real terms. The old series gave 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Annual real GDP growth in Mauritius (Statistics Mauritius, September 2026)<\/caption>\n
Year<\/th>\nGDP at market prices<\/th>\nGrowth, new series<\/th>\nGrowth, old series<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
2023<\/td>\nRs 695.2 billion<\/td>\n4.5%<\/td>\n4.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2024<\/td>\nRs 756.7 billion<\/td>\n4.2%<\/td>\n4.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2025<\/td>\nRs 810.3 billion<\/td>\n3.5%<\/td>\n3.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2026 (forecast)<\/td>\nRs 873.1 billion<\/td>\n3.0%<\/td>\n\u2013<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

The key point is that 2024 growth was 4.2%, not 4.9%. Any article or sales presentation that quotes 4.9% for 2024 or 3.2% for 2025 is using the old series. For 2026, GDP in current prices is forecast to rise by 7.8%, of which 4.6% is price increases (the GDP deflator), which leaves real growth of 3.0%.<\/p>\n

2026 so far: a weak first quarter, a stronger second<\/h2>\n

GDP at market prices grew by 1.7% year on year in the first quarter of 2026 and by 3.0% in the second. Gross value added, which leaves out taxes on products, rose 1.6% in the first quarter (revised down from the 2.0% estimated in June) and 4.2% in the second.<\/p>\n

Neither of the first two quarters went above 3.0%, so to reach 3.0% for the year the second half has to grow faster than that. This is the main uncertainty in the forecast.<\/p>\n

What is driving growth in 2026<\/h2>\n

The forecast 3.1% growth in value added comes mostly from financial services (0.5 percentage points), trade (0.4) and transport (0.3). Accommodation and food services, and agriculture, add 0.2 points each.<\/p>\n

Tourism plays a smaller part than in 2024 and 2025. Statistics Mauritius expects around 1,470,000 arrivals in 2026, against 1,436,250 in 2025, and growth of 2.2% in accommodation and food services, down from 4.2% in 2025. That sector shrank by 1.3% in the second quarter. Our article on tourist arrivals in Mauritius<\/a> has the detail.<\/p>\n

Investment is going the other way. It is forecast to fall by 1.1% in real terms in 2026 (private sector \u22120.8%, public sector \u22122.3%) after rising 1.9% in 2025, and the investment rate would slip from 21.0% to 20.2% of GDP.<\/p>\n

What the figures say about property<\/h2>\n

Statistics Mauritius publishes three measures that bear directly on the sector. They do not tell the same story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Property and construction in the national accounts, real growth (Statistics Mauritius, September 2026)<\/caption>\n
Measure<\/th>\n2024<\/th>\n2025<\/th>\n2026 (forecast)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Construction (value added)<\/td>\n+6.1%<\/td>\n\u22122.1%<\/td>\n+0.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Investment in residential buildings<\/td>\n+21.8%<\/td>\n+8.4%<\/td>\n+0.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Investment in non-residential buildings<\/td>\n+9.9%<\/td>\n\u22121.5%<\/td>\n\u22124.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Real estate activities (value added)<\/td>\n+2.0%<\/td>\n+1.9%<\/td>\n+1.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Investment in residential buildings was Rs 47.4 billion in 2025 and is forecast at Rs 50.1 billion in 2026. That is a rise of 5.7% in current prices, but only +0.7% in real terms once prices are stripped out. After two years of strong growth, the pace is levelling off.<\/p>\n

Construction is the shakiest number. The forecast of +0.9% for the year rests on public projects (roads, drainage, social housing, the Rivi\u00e8re des Anguilles dam) and private ones (land parcelling, hotel renovation, renewable energy). The quarterly figures point the other way, though: \u22123.5% in the first quarter and \u22124.0% in the second. The recovery forecast for the year is not yet visible in the quarterly data.<\/p>\n

The “real estate activities” line (4.3% of value added in 2025) does not measure prices. Nearly three quarters of it, Rs 22.4 billion out of Rs 30.7 billion in 2025, is owner-occupied housing services: an imputed rent that the national accounts assign to people who live in their own home. Its 1.9% growth therefore says nothing about the market for buying and selling. In the second quarter of 2026 the line grew by 2.5%.<\/p>\n

For prices you need a different source: the official property price index<\/a> and our survey of property prices in Mauritius<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Bank of Mauritius: 2.8% growth and a key rate of 4.75%<\/h2>\n

On 12 August 2026 the Bank of Mauritius’s Monetary Policy Committee left the Key Rate at 4.75%. The Bank kept its 2026 growth forecast at 2.8%, unchanged since May, and sees the risks tilted to the downside: geopolitical tension, supply-chain disruption and weaker demand. It projects inflation of about 5% in 2026, down from 5.5%.<\/p>\n

The gap between 3.0% (Statistics Mauritius, 30 September) and 2.8% (Bank of Mauritius, 12 August) comes from two institutions, two dates and two sets of assumptions, not from a contradiction. The key rate largely drives the cost of a loan: see our article on the key rate and mortgages<\/a>.<\/p>\n

What to take from this if you are buying or investing<\/h2>\n