The 2024-2025 cyclone season in the southwest Indian Ocean is expected to be slightly more active than the previous year, due to higher-than-normal ocean temperatures. Here’s an overview of the forecasts and weather factors involved:
1. Expected cyclones and names
Meteorologists anticipate between 8 and 10 tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean basin this season, of which 2 to 4 could become severe tropical cyclones. Among this season’s first names: Ancha, Bheki, Chido, and Dikeledi. Traditionally, Mauritius is most affected by cyclones between January and March, but rapid intensification, now commonplace, could bring cyclones earlier than expected.
2. Sea surface temperatures
This year, sea surface temperatures (SST) are expected to be 1.2 to 1.4°C above average, particularly in the central and western Indian Ocean. These higher SSTs fuel tropical storms, making them more intense and longer-lasting.
3. Precipitation and wind intensity
With these cyclones, we can expect extremely heavy rainfall. Mauritius, renowned for its greenery, could receive 100 to 300 mm of rain in a single event, causing flash flooding in low-lying areas. Winds in the most intense cyclones could exceed 150 km/h, causing major damage.
4. Areas most at risk
The east and south coasts of Mauritius are generally the hardest hit by cyclones, due to their exposure to the prevailing winds. However, the northern and western parts could also be affected if the cyclones deviate from their usual trajectory.
5. Comparison with last season
The 2023-2024 season was relatively quiet, with only seven named cyclones, two of which reached Category 3. Cyclone Freddy, the most significant, passed close to Mauritius with heavy rain but little damage. This year, with higher ocean temperatures, Category 4 cyclones are likely to be more frequent, with more numerous and more intense storms.
6. Tropical storms beyond cyclones
In addition to cyclones, tropical depressions and moderate storms can be expected to pass close to the island, bringing heavy rain and strong winds. Although less intense, these storms can still cause major disruption.
7. Advice in the event of a cyclone
- Stay informed: Follow official weather updates.
- Secure outdoor objects: In the event of an emergency, put away anything that could be blown by the wind.
- Check for water infiltration: Make sure gutters and windows/doors are watertight.
- Stock up: Have a few days’ supply of bottled water and food.
- Do not drink tap water after a cyclone, as it may be contaminated.
- Switch off electrical appliances: In the event of a severe storm, unplug appliances and switch off the electricity.
- Stay indoors: Don’t go out until the authorities have declared the alert over.
- Empty the pool slightly to prevent overflow into the garden.
Conclusion
As we prepare to enter the cyclone season, forecasts point to a more intense year for Mauritius. Preparation is essential, especially in coastal regions and low-lying areas prone to flooding. With several severe cyclones expected, including category 4 storms, it is advisable to follow weather forecasts closely.
Sources: :
Wikipedia
Weatherzone
Mtotec
Climate Research Lab @ IITM
