Cyclone Season 2024-2025 in the South-West Indian Ocean: What to expect?
Introduction
- The 2024-2025 cyclone season looks set to be more intense than last year’s in the southwest Indian Ocean, with higher-than-normal ocean temperatures.
- This climatic phenomenon increases the risk of more numerous and more powerful cyclones, impacting Mauritius in particular.
- In this article, discover the forecasts, the factors at play, and advice on how to prepare for this hurricane season.
1: Expected cyclones and names
- Meteorologists are forecasting between 8 and 10 tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean basin this season, of which 2 to 4 could become severe tropical cyclones.
- Among this season’s first names: Ancha, Bheki, Chido, and Dikeledi.
- Mauritius is generally most affected between January and March, but the rapid intensification of cyclones could lead to phenomena as early as the beginning of the season.
2: Sea Surface Temperatures
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are expected to be between 1.2 and 1.4°C above average, particularly in the central and western Indian Ocean.
- These higher SSTs favor the intensification and durability of tropical storms, increasing the risk of more powerful cyclones.
3: Precipitation and wind intensity
- This season’s cyclones could bring extremely heavy rainfall, with levels reaching between 100 and 300 mm in a single event in Mauritius.
- The winds of the most intense cyclones could exceed 150 km/h, causing significant damage in the most exposed regions.
4: Highest Risk Areas
- The east and south coasts of Mauritius are traditionally the most vulnerable, due to their exposure to prevailing winds.
- However, the northern and western regions could also be impacted if the cyclones deviate from their usual trajectory.
5: Comparison with previous season
- The 2023-2024 season was relatively quiet, with only seven named cyclones, two of which reached Category 3.
- Cyclone Freddy, the most notable, passed close to Mauritius, causing heavy rain but little damage.
- This year, with higher ocean temperatures, Category 4 cyclones could be more frequent, increasing the risk of more numerous and more intense storms.
6: Tropical storms beyond cyclones
- In addition to cyclones, tropical depressions and moderate storms are also expected near the island, bringing heavy rain and strong winds.
- Although less intense than cyclones, these phenomena can cause major disruption to residents and infrastructure.
7: Advice in the event of a cyclone
- Stay informed: Follow official weather updates to stay alert.
- Secure outdoor items: In an emergency, put away anything that could be blown away by the wind.
- Check for water infiltration: Make sure gutters and windows/doors are watertight.
- Faites des provisions : Prévoyez de l’eau en bouteille et de la nourriture pour quelques jours.
- Do not drink tap water after a cyclone, as it may be contaminated.
- Switch off electrical appliances: Unplug appliances and switch off electricity in the event of a severe storm.
- Stay indoors: Don’t go out until the authorities have declared the alert over.
- Empty the pool slightly to prevent overflow into the garden.
The 2024-2025 cyclone season in the southwest Indian Ocean promises to be more intense, requiring heightened vigilance on the part of residents of Mauritius. With forecasts indicating several severe cyclones, including Category 4 storms, preparation is essential to minimize impacts. Follow the weather reports carefully and make sure your home and family are well prepared for this hurricane season.
